1 in 50 Ain't Bad

Actors have a much better chance of succeeding in Hollywood than you may think!

The claim, “You have a 1 in 23* chance of becoming one of the Top 200 Actors in Hollywood,” was made at an inspiring marketing seminar hosted by Dallas Travers (http://www.dallastravers.com/). I decided to do my own research analysis**, and I think that the number is more like 1 in 50 (still awesome). Here’s how it works:

The National Endowment for the arts analyzed Census data and reports from the American Community Survey to create “Artists in the Workforce 1990-2005.” It shows that:

Nearly 175 million Americans are in the labor force.

Nearly 2 million Americans categorize themselves as Artists.

Nearly 40 thousand American Artists categorize themselves as Actors.

American Actors are nearly evenly split down gender lines. Therefore, you are competing with only 20 thousand Actors of your gender.

Half of American Actors move to California (20% to NY, and the rest in regional markets). Therefore, you are competing with only 10 thousand American Actors of your gender in California.

Of those 10 thousand American Actors in California who are your gender, 200 of them make up the Top 200 American Actors of your gender in Hollywood. That means American Actors of one gender in California have a 1 in 50 chance of really making it in Hollywood.

In other words: Simply by taking action to become an artist, your odds go from 1 in 875,000 to 1 in 10,000. Taking action to become an actor puts you at 1 in 200. You only have to compete with your own gender, so your odds are now 1 in 100. Moving to California cuts your direct competition in half, so you have a 1 in 50 chance of joining the ranks of the highest paid actors in Hollywood.

The average working American has a 1 in 875,000 chance of becoming a Hollywood Heavyweight. Actors who take tangible steps towards the top have a 1 in 50 chance of achieving their dream.

There is a big difference between WANTING to become one of the top 200 and TAKING ACTION to become of the 200. Blogger Aaron Stanton says it best, “if you actually get done reading this post, stand up, and become an actor - or whatever your dream is - then you really are on your way to success. But if you just nod after reading this, think it's interesting, and then close the browser and go make yourself lunch and that's it - then welcome to the millions. Your odds are entirely determined by your own next moves.”

* Blogger Aaron Stanton included a further restriction to competition by adding, “But now we look at you, and your skills. Let's say you're a good actor, and a good networker. In fact, at these two skills - which is what you need to get off the ground - let's say you're in the 80th percentile; you're better than 80% of the actors out there. So, really, in auditions, you're up against the other 20% who are as good or better than you, and the 10% who are worse, but have the right characteristics for the role. 30% of 15,000 is 4,500 people competing for those top 200 roles.”

**Sources for this research analysis include:

NEA “Artists in the Workforce 1990-2005” http://www.nea.gov/research/ArtistsInWorkforce.pdf

Aaron Stanton’s Blog “Can Google Hear Me” http://www.cangooglehearme.com/permalink.php?id=269